Economic fluctuations, business cycles. Source of recession financial shock.
- Failure to follow the fast growing public debt.(Greece)
- During the crisis, the expansion of the application and the wrong timing of monetary policy on financial output. Stock market is the leading indicator for recessions.
- The rapid increase in commodity prices creates a balloon.
- Lack of adequate financial arrangements.
Developed countries, indicates that the economic regime.
* In the global crisis, these countries continued growth:
- Austria
- Indonesia
- India
- Poland
We have got 3 shape for economy
First one is ‘’ V ‘’ . It is meaning : Fast an increase and fast a decrease.
- Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Russia
Second symbol is ‘’ U ‘’ . It is meaning: balanced.
- United States of America, England, Japan, Canada
Finally, last one is ‘’ L ‘’ . It is meaning: surge soft and long.
- Euro-zone
2008 crisis is a global crisis. Foreign countries are trying to apply the unsustainable policies. Financial Stability Policy didn't take a control. In the crisis unemployment rates of production is checked. U.S. at the moment the crisis did not complete. Gross national product is rising but the unemployment situation is still complex. Post-crisis unemployment in Turkey is low to high value. Policy inconsistency cause of the crisis. Turkey did not catch to industry we are already agriculture society. When Turkey have a shock, immediately unemployment is rising. And the unemployment rate does not fall after the crisis. Growth and cyclical situation affect each other.
Korea is still growing up were not affected.
Among the 20 largest economy in the world in 2009 with 18% unemployment, the highest country is Spain. And 14% with the second highest unemployment is Turkey in the world best 20 economy.
Example of the successful countries in crisis measures
* South Korea
South Korea has a comprehensive crisis plan. Economic crisis began in 1997. And South Korea has taken package of measures in March of 1998.
Crisis package contents:
- Employment Protection
- Employment Creation
- Vocational Training
- Job Placement
- Social Insurance
* Argentina
Argentina did in industry reform. Production with new technology. They have applied unemployment insurance. This reform influence 200 thousand people. Finally unemployment benefits have paid.
* Norway
Norway have a low unemployment rate. They have got employment project. In 1988, there was crisis. In 1993 the crisis was over. There was much unemployment. This crisis influenced more than 50 years people and recent graduates. Technology evolved, the state supported. Depending on the individual and the company has made the system.
What happened to the Turkey in crisis?
* Domestic demand and consumer confidence has collapsed
- Distributed to the import quantity
- Investors fell
- Foreign trade deficit and shrinking volume
Unlike the 2001 crisis improved exports.
This crisis has got economic problem at the same time it has got social and economic problem.
- Public revenues collapsed
- Increased spending
- Budget deficit increased to 5.5% from 1.8% of national income
Autonomous income beyond. Investment, more influenced by expectations. Investment collapsed due to deterioration of expectations.
In the crisis domestic demand is decrease and producers tend to export. But this crisis is global for this reason internal and external market collapsed. In the Global crisis(2009), we couldn't apply the financial discipline. Public sector increased. However, budget deficit increased. Turkey began to decline early than others country. Turkey began to slow down from 2004. In the Global crisis(2009) Turkey narrowed 4.7 . The world is more narrowed. External deficit is not the problem. Because goods imported from low-reserve. The share of the public is less, it is marginally. Net export position and investors are important.
Turkey's main 3 problem:
- Employment
- External deficit
- Budget structure / balance
Labor-intensive, capital and information industries obsolete. China, India, Bangladesh can be better.
Motivation in domestic demand in Turkey so it is created external deficit. This is not sustainable.
Out of the United States, the others developed countries have got joint capital and joint export.
In 1970 and 1990, Turkey had budget problem. Always the problem of balance. In 2001, the budget reform has been beneficial.
Employment in Turkey
No real increase in agriculture in national income, not growth. It has the wrong policy. Service sector is rising better than industrial sector in the world. We are fast emerging as the industry growth. Industrial sector is high, but the service sector is low.
* Economic growth and employment should also increase
- The structure of exports
- Re-designed exchange-rate policies
- Although Turkey's share of world trade volume is growing less
Exchange rate; the external deficit relevant. Domestic demand increases so imports will increase. In this way that the external deficit will increase. If Turkey's foreign debt is cheap debt. Is to get rid of problems in the economy.
1- Energy
2- Rate
3- Inner growth
* Increase the public' s money
- The rapid increase in domestic consumption / If this is import, we won't take a tax on import
- Privatization
* Voluntary Policies
- Loose monetary policy / tight money, format changes
- Serious increase in current transfers
Under inflation is the increase in tax revenues. The share of national income taxes by 19%. It is a low figure. In Turkey there is the Special Consumption Tax. Dependent on import tax revenues. The share of national income, spending 19%
* General Effects of the Crisis
- Political effect / Reduction in voting power
- The social impact. Unemployment and deterioration in income distribution
- That the economic impact
- The basic strategy is a change in the public sector
- Private sector is gain experience from the crisis
- Learning the many unknowns
- The social impact of the increase in unemployment
* Post-Crisis Results
- There is a fundamental change in economic policy or strategy
- Flexible system / Exchange rate system limited intervened
- Fiscal discipline, monetary policy focused on inflation target
- Stability-oriented strategy, not growth
* The crisis will do this reform in the future
- Grew up in productivity growth
- Transformation of the sector and the private sector's investment preferences
- Structural transformation in the public sector.
Those exports were affected by the crisis. Debt crisis and inflation appeared.labor organization and democracy are important. After every crisis, politically challenging period.
- Failure to follow the fast growing public debt.(Greece)
- During the crisis, the expansion of the application and the wrong timing of monetary policy on financial output. Stock market is the leading indicator for recessions.
- The rapid increase in commodity prices creates a balloon.
- Lack of adequate financial arrangements.
Developed countries, indicates that the economic regime.
* In the global crisis, these countries continued growth:
- Austria
- Indonesia
- India
- Poland
We have got 3 shape for economy
First one is ‘’ V ‘’ . It is meaning : Fast an increase and fast a decrease.
- Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Russia
Second symbol is ‘’ U ‘’ . It is meaning: balanced.
- United States of America, England, Japan, Canada
Finally, last one is ‘’ L ‘’ . It is meaning: surge soft and long.
- Euro-zone
2008 crisis is a global crisis. Foreign countries are trying to apply the unsustainable policies. Financial Stability Policy didn't take a control. In the crisis unemployment rates of production is checked. U.S. at the moment the crisis did not complete. Gross national product is rising but the unemployment situation is still complex. Post-crisis unemployment in Turkey is low to high value. Policy inconsistency cause of the crisis. Turkey did not catch to industry we are already agriculture society. When Turkey have a shock, immediately unemployment is rising. And the unemployment rate does not fall after the crisis. Growth and cyclical situation affect each other.
Korea is still growing up were not affected.
Among the 20 largest economy in the world in 2009 with 18% unemployment, the highest country is Spain. And 14% with the second highest unemployment is Turkey in the world best 20 economy.
Example of the successful countries in crisis measures
* South Korea
South Korea has a comprehensive crisis plan. Economic crisis began in 1997. And South Korea has taken package of measures in March of 1998.
Crisis package contents:
- Employment Protection
- Employment Creation
- Vocational Training
- Job Placement
- Social Insurance
* Argentina
Argentina did in industry reform. Production with new technology. They have applied unemployment insurance. This reform influence 200 thousand people. Finally unemployment benefits have paid.
* Norway
Norway have a low unemployment rate. They have got employment project. In 1988, there was crisis. In 1993 the crisis was over. There was much unemployment. This crisis influenced more than 50 years people and recent graduates. Technology evolved, the state supported. Depending on the individual and the company has made the system.
What happened to the Turkey in crisis?
* Domestic demand and consumer confidence has collapsed
- Distributed to the import quantity
- Investors fell
- Foreign trade deficit and shrinking volume
Unlike the 2001 crisis improved exports.
This crisis has got economic problem at the same time it has got social and economic problem.
- Public revenues collapsed
- Increased spending
- Budget deficit increased to 5.5% from 1.8% of national income
Autonomous income beyond. Investment, more influenced by expectations. Investment collapsed due to deterioration of expectations.
In the crisis domestic demand is decrease and producers tend to export. But this crisis is global for this reason internal and external market collapsed. In the Global crisis(2009), we couldn't apply the financial discipline. Public sector increased. However, budget deficit increased. Turkey began to decline early than others country. Turkey began to slow down from 2004. In the Global crisis(2009) Turkey narrowed 4.7 . The world is more narrowed. External deficit is not the problem. Because goods imported from low-reserve. The share of the public is less, it is marginally. Net export position and investors are important.
Turkey's main 3 problem:
- Employment
- External deficit
- Budget structure / balance
Labor-intensive, capital and information industries obsolete. China, India, Bangladesh can be better.
Motivation in domestic demand in Turkey so it is created external deficit. This is not sustainable.
Out of the United States, the others developed countries have got joint capital and joint export.
In 1970 and 1990, Turkey had budget problem. Always the problem of balance. In 2001, the budget reform has been beneficial.
Employment in Turkey
| 2002 | 2009 | |
| Agriculture | 34.9 % | 24.7 % |
| Industry | 18.5 % | 19.4 % |
| Construction | 4.5 % | 5.9 % |
| Service | 42 % | 50 % |
No real increase in agriculture in national income, not growth. It has the wrong policy. Service sector is rising better than industrial sector in the world. We are fast emerging as the industry growth. Industrial sector is high, but the service sector is low.
* Economic growth and employment should also increase
- The structure of exports
- Re-designed exchange-rate policies
- Although Turkey's share of world trade volume is growing less
Exchange rate; the external deficit relevant. Domestic demand increases so imports will increase. In this way that the external deficit will increase. If Turkey's foreign debt is cheap debt. Is to get rid of problems in the economy.
1- Energy
2- Rate
3- Inner growth
* Increase the public' s money
- The rapid increase in domestic consumption / If this is import, we won't take a tax on import
- Privatization
* Voluntary Policies
- Loose monetary policy / tight money, format changes
- Serious increase in current transfers
Under inflation is the increase in tax revenues. The share of national income taxes by 19%. It is a low figure. In Turkey there is the Special Consumption Tax. Dependent on import tax revenues. The share of national income, spending 19%
* General Effects of the Crisis
- Political effect / Reduction in voting power
- The social impact. Unemployment and deterioration in income distribution
- That the economic impact
- The basic strategy is a change in the public sector
- Private sector is gain experience from the crisis
- Learning the many unknowns
- The social impact of the increase in unemployment
* Post-Crisis Results
- There is a fundamental change in economic policy or strategy
- Flexible system / Exchange rate system limited intervened
- Fiscal discipline, monetary policy focused on inflation target
- Stability-oriented strategy, not growth
* The crisis will do this reform in the future
- Grew up in productivity growth
- Transformation of the sector and the private sector's investment preferences
- Structural transformation in the public sector.
Those exports were affected by the crisis. Debt crisis and inflation appeared.labor organization and democracy are important. After every crisis, politically challenging period.
