27 Mart 2011 Pazar

The World Economy

Global economic conditions are very effective. Because competition is increasing day to day. Even countries are competing. So economy complex concept. In this manner the main issue is to focus on the goal. If you focus to target, you will be successful. Rapidly changing economic and political structures today. Nevertheless, we are working successful in our goal and we should be careful.

Even large interdependent economies. For example China and U.S.A. have got large percent economic trade. They have got strong ‘’ currency-product ‘’ relations. If these are missing one of the, it will be unbalanced. And one factor will affect the world economy. Because the world economy reacts to quickly. There are many things about the future of each country will do. Reason of the economic crisis of 2008, all countries experienced panic. The world lived effective 2 in a global crisis. First one was in 1930, second and last crisis was in 2008 on October. There was fear that the financial system will collapse.

1997-98 was the Asian crisis. Crisis in developing countries was constantly. But the last crisis was about developed country. For this reason this affect the all over the world.
The first global crisis was in 1931-32. That was disaster. The unemployment rate rose to 30%.the Totalitarian ideologies provided their interests. Nazism, communism...
1930-40 in Turkey had got strong crisis. And this time period Turkey closed economy and there was tight fiscal policy. Ismet Inonu kept out the Turkey second world war. This strategy was right and very important step for Turkey future.

U.S.A., European Countries, Japan, China and European countries and G-20 countries did many important economic policy to their home countries.
- Intervention in the financial system.
- Expanded the monetary policy. Interest rates in developed countries approached to 0. It was prevented with abundant supply of liquidity. Financial sector reform was initiated.
- Expansionary fiscal policy.
The world economy has experienced in recent years, the greatest stagnation. Developing countries were afraid the crisis will affect the themselves. The IMF' s money-making power was multiplied by 3. Developing countries left the crisis quickly. Recovery was rapidly. Crisis in South Asia and India have never been. China has 10% rising rate. Growth was 8% in India. The average growth rate in developing countries more than 3 times. This is better than developed countries.

G20 countries, April 3 , 2009 meeting was important in London. And 3 main subjects were determine:
- Cost of the expansion policy
-  Liquidity in the monetary policy  and  continued the interest rate is 0
- Finance regulation
- Fiscal policy must be compatible with all countries.

In 2009 ; 2 quarter,  the crisis stopped and the growth has began. Herewith, production has increased. Stocks improved. Negative growth of Turkey because of the psychological panic. When the panic over again continued growth. Public debt ratio increased in developed countries. Greece small country for this reason a narrow tax base. Public debt crisis occurred  in Greece. Developed countries have government debt and pose a problem. There were large public deficits in developed countries. In the United States unemployment rate is currently 9.5%. And it is long-term unemployment.
There is social pressure in Europe and  already high unemployment in Europe. There is also fear of the growth will decrease. Monetary policy was successful and it has stopped the panic. In real terms interest is negative rate, zero. 0 of the nominal interest rate and it does not fall under this number. The state, treasures can buy bond directly. But it has a limit. There are a lot of liquidity in the market.
Does the liquidity preference or trump?

The fiscal policy expanded. US budget deficit was 11%. The border of fiscal policy.
Developing countries continues growth. China 10 %, India 8 % , Turkey 7 %. These are rapid growth number of countries. And In addition this countries the economy of Brazil  improving.
These countries constitute 65 % of the world economy:
- United States
- European Countries
- Japan
The remaining 35%: creates the developing countries.
The share of developing countries are small. For this reason they are not affect the world economy.
If US has a growth, it will affect the all over the world.

There are 3 important factors for the world economy

- First one is ‘’ Create the Coordination and Common Policies ‘’
Principally; countries should work together. Each country's shouldn't think to own interest. Collective policy is ideal for it. Everyone cannot  increase the their net profits. Because our world has got limit. We are living only this planet. We can't exports the others planet or space. USA and Europe would not be different policies. Each country must be effective supervision and support.

- Second essential step is ‘’ Eliminate Uncertainty ‘’
The unemployment rate is surplus and also have increase debt. Households and companies want to know the tax rate for 4-5 years. If you do not say the tax rate, it will be uncertainty. Investment and consumption are reduced. Exchange rate policy and fiscal policy must be together. USA has got very low interest rates on government bonds.The most important issue is the health care system in USA. Because it has got the largest gaps. Market and policy are creating panic in the USA.
United States of America should reduce the money spent to defense. China and Germany should support domestic demand.

- Finally, third subject is ‘’ Income distribution ‘’
Ethical, political, social, and justice should be equal. Inequality makes unhappy society. Income distribution and macroeconomics have a direct relationship. The upper tier is very rich of an income distribution. U.S.A., China, India and Asian Countries have got this situation. European Countries has got different case.

In USA,1972, 1 % of the population have got 9 % revenue. Now, this percentage is increase the 24 %. In addition, 0.1 % of the population; they have got 11 % on the revenue.
Percentage of the households in China: 36 % and the share of the labour is 40 %. That have effective demand. Household have got many debt in the USA. China constantly trying to export. China has less demand in the domestic market but they have a lot of demand in foreign markets. This name is demand imbalance. Strong corporation do not have the problem of financing.
Productivity is increasing. But balanced household,increase in revenues and wide-growth balanced are the most important factor. We need sustainable growth.

* Causes of crisis in the USA:
- Excessive borrowing
- Liquidity
- Real Estate Sector
- Political Structure

For long-term savings, we should increase the savings rate. Financial regulation is the first step for the achievement.We must move long-term.

25 Mart 2011 Cuma

McDonald’s 25th Anniversary in Turkey

When we remember the fast food and hamburgers words, we can say McDonald’s...
This brand is the symbol of globalization. And this restaurant is successful leader of the franchising system all over the world. Operating in the whole world for many years and influenced of the world. The famous fast food chain founded in 1940 in California, San Bernardino by Dick and Mac McDonald’s. When it founded,the first format was ‘’ car service restaurant ’’. In 1948, They began the service with napkins and paper but the menu was limited diversity. Because the main aim was quick-service restaurant , namely ‘’ fast food system ‘’. As well as car service instead of self service and takeaway were increased importance. So, last system not only teens, families with children went to this place. That began to reach the high turnovers. All over the McDonald’s are managed from the center of Oak Brook, it is near the Chicago. In addition, in the Oak Brook has got international education center; ‘’ Hamburger University ‘’. So anywhere in the world all of the workers and manager of McDonald’s, they come and they learn ‘’ burger job ‘’.

McDonald’s Standards

McDonald’s Standards, in 1954, for the customer satisfaction; does not compromise on quality, successful service and detailed cleaning. These were created by Ray Kroc.

* McDonald's in the quality of the products using the best materials and the preparation ofthe standards; products that protect health and the taste of food safety methods and procedures to customers are based is presented.

* McDonald's in the service fast, friendly and gentle. Service is always a great way for the realization of customer expectations, team members are asked to think like the customer.

* McDonald's cleaning, restaurants, as well as all units and personnel, including an understanding of the environment is close to restaurants. The main objective in going to restaurants than McDonald's customers feeling clean.

* McDonald's concept of value is fresh, hot and delicious products, customers enjoy an environment claims, the most pleasant way possible and offer the most affordable prices means.

In Turkey 25 year

- Turkey, 24 October 1986 the first restaurant opened in Taksim in the McDonald's restaurant and close to 160 in Turkey for 25 years with a workforce of close to 4 thousand years, serving 76 million people nearer.

- McDonald's restaurant in Turkey, 157 in each of the shows be sure to use products provided by suppliers in Turkey. McDonald's restaurants in Turkey for 25 years: 500 million sandwich , 44 thousand tons of meat, 45 million liters of milk, 65 thousand tons of potatoes were sold.

McDonald's system

- McDonald's operates in every country, material manufacturers, architects, lawyers,financial experts, construction companies, advertising and public relations agencies to,many different areas, people and organizations are customers. And developed methods to make the system and then that share people and organizations.

- Working with companies and growing their business volume. Product quality is the most important issue for McDonald's. Every McDonald's in the food safety very gradually to take control of all the products are systematically checked.

McDonald's Numbers

* More than 118 countries
* More than 32,000 restaurants
* There are more than 13,000 outside the United States of America
* 70 % of the business is a franchise, the rest of the McDonald's business.
* 58 million. The average daily number of visitors
* 98 % in the U.S.A. at least once a year for going to a McDonald's.

McDonald's History Timeline

* Dick and Mack McDonald, in California, San Bernardino established the first McDonald restaurant.

* Ray Kroc visited McDonald's restaurant in the United States and he was the dealership and was its agent.

* Ray Kroc, In Ilinois-Des Plaines founded the first McDonald's restaurant and two years has reached 40 restaurants number.
* Art and Bernence bender, the first McDonald's restaurant business founded California, in Fresno.

* 100. restaurant founded.

* Lillian McMahon,as the first female manager of a restaurant. She established by herself.

* Kroc, the company bought 2.7 million dollars.
* Hamburger University founded on same time.

* Seating of the first McDonald's in Denver, founded in Colorada.

* McDonald's 10 in Initial Public Offering. (IPO)

* The first international McDonald's restaurants in Canada and Puerto Rico also were founded.

* Big Mac and Hot Apple Pie was added to the menu.

* International department was created.

* McDonald's founded in Costa Rica.

* The central  office moved in Oak Brook.
* The first restaurant in Asia founded in Japan.
* Europe's first restaurant founded in the Netherlands in Amsterdam near the Zaandam.

* Quarter Pounder was added to the menu.

* The first restaurant established in the car service.

* Happy Meals were added to the menus.

* Spain, Denmark and the Philippines established the first McDonald's restaurant.
* Chicken McNuggets marketed.

* Ray Kroc died on January 14.

* 11,000. restaurant was opened in Hong Kong.

* In Moscow first McDonald's established.

* McDonald's is the largest of which began in the world until that day, China founded in Beijing.

* Big Mag celebrated 25 years.

* Chicken McGrill and Crispy Chicken sandwiches in the United States were included in the menus.

* McDonald's Global Social Responsibility report published for the first time.

* McDonald's premium salads to menus across the country were included.
* McDonald's, the company's worldwide revival plan began implementation of the '' Winning Plan ''.
* First global advertising campaign: ‘’ I love it ‘’ has started 2 September in Munich.

* Happy Meal celebrated 25 years.
* McDonald’ April 15, the 50-year anniversary.

* Nutritional values ​​on product packages starting to notice.

19 Mart 2011 Cumartesi

Global Crisis and the Turkey Economy

Economic fluctuations, business cycles. Source of recession financial shock.
- Failure to follow the fast growing public debt.(Greece)
- During the crisis, the expansion of the application and the wrong timing of monetary policy on financial output. Stock market is the leading indicator for recessions.
- The rapid increase in commodity prices creates a balloon.
- Lack of adequate financial arrangements.

Developed countries, indicates that the economic regime.

* In the global crisis, these countries continued growth:

- Austria
- Indonesia
- India
- Poland

We have got 3 shape for economy

First one is ‘’ V ‘’ . It is meaning : Fast an increase and fast a decrease.
- Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Russia

Second symbol is ‘’ U ‘’ .  It is meaning: balanced.
- United States of America, England, Japan, Canada

Finally, last one is ‘’ L ‘’  . It is meaning: surge soft and long.
- Euro-zone

2008 crisis is a global crisis. Foreign countries are trying to apply the unsustainable policies. Financial Stability Policy didn't take a control. In the crisis unemployment rates of production is checked. U.S. at the moment the crisis did not complete. Gross national product is rising but the unemployment situation is still complex. Post-crisis unemployment in Turkey is low to high value. Policy inconsistency cause of the crisis. Turkey did not catch to industry we are already agriculture society. When Turkey have a shock, immediately unemployment is rising. And the unemployment rate does not fall after the crisis. Growth and cyclical situation affect each other.
Korea is still growing up were not affected.
Among the 20 largest economy in the world in 2009 with 18% unemployment, the highest country is Spain. And 14% with the second highest unemployment is Turkey in the world best 20 economy.

Example of the successful countries in crisis measures

* South Korea

South Korea has a comprehensive crisis plan. Economic crisis began in 1997. And South Korea has  taken package of measures in March of 1998.
Crisis package contents:
- Employment Protection
- Employment  Creation
- Vocational Training
- Job Placement
- Social Insurance

* Argentina

Argentina did in industry reform. Production with new technology. They have applied unemployment insurance. This reform influence 200 thousand people. Finally unemployment benefits have paid.

* Norway

Norway have a low unemployment rate. They have got employment project. In 1988, there was crisis. In 1993 the crisis was over. There was much unemployment. This crisis influenced more than 50 years people and recent graduates. Technology evolved, the state supported. Depending on the individual and the company has made the system.

What happened to the Turkey in crisis?

*  Domestic demand and consumer confidence has collapsed

- Distributed to the import quantity
- Investors fell
- Foreign trade deficit and shrinking volume

Unlike the 2001 crisis improved exports.
This crisis has got economic problem at the same time it has got social and economic problem.
- Public revenues collapsed
- Increased spending
- Budget deficit increased to 5.5% from 1.8% of national income

Autonomous income beyond. Investment, more influenced by expectations. Investment collapsed due to deterioration of expectations.
In the crisis domestic demand is decrease and producers tend to export. But this crisis is global for this reason internal and external market collapsed. In the Global crisis(2009), we couldn't apply the financial discipline. Public sector increased. However, budget deficit increased. Turkey began to decline early than others country. Turkey began to slow down from 2004. In the Global crisis(2009) Turkey narrowed 4.7  . The world is more narrowed. External deficit is not the problem. Because goods imported from low-reserve. The share of the public is less, it is marginally. Net export position and investors are important.

Turkey's main 3 problem:

- Employment
- External deficit
- Budget structure / balance

Labor-intensive, capital and information industries obsolete. China, India, Bangladesh can be better.
Motivation in domestic demand in Turkey so it is created external deficit. This is not sustainable.
Out of the United States, the others developed countries have got joint capital and joint export.
In 1970 and 1990, Turkey had budget problem. Always the problem of balance. In 2001, the budget reform has been beneficial.

Employment in Turkey

Agriculture34.9 %24.7 %
Industry18.5 %19.4 %
Construction4.5 %5.9 %
Service42 %50 %

No real increase in agriculture in national income, not growth. It has the wrong policy. Service sector is rising better than industrial sector in the world. We are fast emerging as the industry growth. Industrial sector is high, but the service sector is low.

* Economic growth and employment should also increase

- The structure of exports
- Re-designed exchange-rate policies
- Although Turkey's share of world trade volume is growing less
Exchange rate; the external deficit relevant. Domestic demand increases so imports will increase. In this way that the external deficit will increase. If Turkey's foreign debt is cheap debt. Is to get rid of problems in the economy.
1- Energy
2- Rate
3- Inner growth

* Increase the public' s money

- The rapid increase in domestic consumption / If this is import, we won't take a tax on import
- Privatization

* Voluntary Policies

- Loose monetary policy / tight money, format changes
- Serious increase in current transfers
Under inflation is the increase in tax revenues. The share of national income taxes by 19%. It is a low figure. In Turkey there is the Special Consumption Tax. Dependent on import tax revenues. The share of national income, spending 19%

* General Effects of the Crisis

- Political effect / Reduction in voting power
- The social impact. Unemployment and deterioration in income distribution
- That the economic impact
- The basic strategy is a change in the public sector
- Private sector is gain experience from the crisis
- Learning the many unknowns
- The social impact of the increase in unemployment

* Post-Crisis Results

- There is a fundamental change in economic policy or strategy
- Flexible system / Exchange rate system limited intervened
- Fiscal discipline, monetary policy focused on inflation target
- Stability-oriented strategy, not growth

* The crisis will do this reform in the future

- Grew up in productivity growth
- Transformation of the sector and the private sector's investment preferences
- Structural transformation in the public sector.

Those exports were affected by the crisis. Debt crisis and inflation appeared.labor organization and democracy are important. After every crisis, politically challenging period.